Reigning champions France are second favorite according to Opta and could defend title in Qatar is 13%
Brazil have not won the World Cup since 2002, but Qatar 2022 is likely to be their year. South America emerged as the frontrunner for a sixth trophy. But will England and Wales get along?
To get an overall picture of who will win the 2022 World Cup, the predictive model uses betting market odds and Stats Perform team rankings to determine the outcome of each match (win, draw or lose). Estimate the probability of .
Odds and rankings are based on past and current team performance. The model then takes into account the strength of the opponents and the difficulty of the road to the final using the head-to-head outcome probabilities, taking into account the group composition and knockout stage seeds.
Opta’s World Cup 2022 Prediction
Brazil emerges with the highest winning percentage. The five-time winner who counts as an overall favorite has a 16% chance of winning the trophy according to his model, and is also the team with the highest odds of reaching the finals as an overall favorite of the tournament (25 %).
Argentina are the second most likely to win the World Cup this year, after five-time winners Brazil. Lionel Scaroni’s Group C favorites have a 13% chance of lifting the trophy this year.
Rounding out the top five for the 2022 World Cup are France (12%), Spain (9%) and England (9%).
France is the third overall favorite, but in fact a tournament knockout they have the highest probability of making it to the stage (91%), ahead of overall favorite Brazil (89%).